Meanwhile, the EU must demonstrate its commitment to integrating all of Moldova, not just its EU-minded populace.
Moldova, a small European nation, balances between different identities. Historically known as Bessarabia, this region has seen various borders and has drawn interest from Russia, the Ottomans, and Romania. Its current borders emerged during World War II, when the Soviet Union amalgamated territories it had occupied from Romania beyond the Dniester River to form the Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic.
In Moldova, the language spoken can be referred to as either Moldovan or Romanian, depending on the respondent and the era. The official Soviet line emphasized a distinct ethnic identity for Moldovans separate from Romanians, and echoes of this identity and language issue are still heard in the country today.1
With the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Moldovans faced the opportunity to define an independent direction for their country, but opinions on this direction were sharply divided. The idea of rejoining Romania, or at least creating a fully Romanian Moldova, became a real possibility for the winners of the first election: supporters of the Romanian identity. Conversely, the Slavic minority in Moldova advocated for a distinctly Moldovan identity, with equal status for both Russian and Moldovan languages.
The most extreme stance was taken by the Slavic-majority areas beyond the Dniester River, which unilaterally declared independence in 1990. The self-proclaimed Transnistrian Moldavian Republic, with Russian support, still effectively controls this region. Around the same time, the Gagauz region also seceded but later peacefully rejoined Moldova as an autonomous territory.
Moldovan politics still pivot on the same question, which has gained stronger geopolitical significance since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Maia Sandu, from the pro-Europe and pro-Romanian PAS party, became Moldova’s president in 2020 with a liberal, pro-Western, and anti-corruption platform. Soon after Russia’s attack in 2022, the government, backing neighboring Ukraine, submitted an EU membership application along with Georgia.2
Relations between Sandu’s administration and Russia reached a critical point in the same year with a severe electricity and energy crisis when prices for Russian-supplied natural gas increased sixfold.3 The Russia-reliant opposition exploited this situation, with large protests using nostalgia for the Soviet era, calling for the restoration of normal trade relations with Russia.4 During this period, the later constitutionally banned SOR party, led by oligarch Ilan Sor from exile, emerged alongside the traditional power parties like the pro-Russian socialists and communists.5
At the start of the invasion in Ukraine, there were fears that Russia might attempt to create a land corridor through Southern Ukraine to Moldova and incorporate Transnistria.6 The European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats sees the energy crisis and the destabilization of Moldovan politics as a Russian influence operation, a last attempt to prevent the country from joining the Western sphere and the EU.7 The situation peaked when Sandu, along with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, accused Russia in early 2023 of aiming for a coup in the country.8 Since then, Moldova, excluding Transnistria, with support from the EU and Romania, has achieved independence from Russian gas and oil, thus averting the potential for future energy weaponization.9
The question of union with Romania still occasionally arises in both countries. Following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, union with Romania and subsequent NATO membership were seen as potential security solutions against Russian aggression; in February 2023, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov threatened that this would make Moldova “the next Ukraine.”10
Sandu has stated that union with Romania no longer has enough support among Moldovans, so Moldova should aim for a future as an independent EU member by 2030.11 12 Increasingly, many Moldovans also hold Romanian passports, enjoying many EU citizenship benefits through this soft integration.
The prospect of an EU-Moldova future depends on how long Moldovan citizens continue to support Sandu and the PAS party’s Western orientation. In the competition between two different futures, factors such as energy, trade relations, the establishment of the rule of law, and the fight against disinformation all play roles. Meanwhile, the EU must demonstrate its commitment to integrating all of Moldova, not just its EU-minded populace.
SAMUEL TAMMEKANN
1 | Fedor, Helen, and Library Of Congress. Federal Research Division. Belarus and Moldova: country studies. Washington, D.C.: Federal Research Division, Library of Congress: For sale by the Supt. of Docs., U.S. G.P.O, 1995. Pdf. https://www.loc.gov/item/95045993/.
2 | European Council. “Moldova.” 27.3.2023. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/enlargement/moldova/.
3 | Peltonen, Topias. 2023. “Venäjämieliset mielenosoittajat mahdollisesti maksettu paikalle – video kertoo, mistä Moldovan epävarmassa ti…” Yle Uutiset, 27.2.2023. https://yle.fi/a/74-20019888.
4 | Rupert, James. 2023. “At Ukraine’s Edge, Russia Presses Hybrid War on Tiny Moldova.” 27.7.2023. United States Institute of Peace. https://www.usip.org/publications/2023/07/ukraines-edge-russia-presses-hybrid-war-tiny-moldova.
5 | BBC News. 2023. “Moldovan Court Bans Pro-Russian Party Sor.” BBC News, 19.6.2023. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65952878.
6 | Mitchell, Ellen. 2022. “Belarus president stands in front of map indicating Moldova invasion plans.” The Hill, 2.3.2022. https://thehill.com/policy/international/596409-belarus-president-stands-in-front-of-battle-map-indicating-moldova/.
7 | Całus, Kamil. 2023. The Russian hybrid threat toolbox in Moldova: economic, political and social dimensions. Hybrid CoE Working Paper 23. Hybrid CoE. https://www.hybridcoe.fi/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/20230413-Hybrid-CoE-Working_Paper-23-Moldova-WEB.pdf
8 | AP News. 2023. “Zelenskyy: Ukraine Caught Russian Plan to ‘destroy’ Moldova.” 9.2.2023. https://apnews.com/article/zelenskyy-politics-european-union-maia-sandu-moldova-90d280ff05db38bf0685a96c2203286b.
9 | Tanas, Alexander. 2023. “Moldova No Longer Needs Russian Gas, Minister Says.” Reuters, 16.3.2023. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/moldova-no-longer-needs-russian-gas-minister-says-2023-03-16/.
10 | Kluth, Andreas. 2023. “After Ukraine, Does Putin Have His Eyes on Another Country?” Washington Post, 28.2.2023. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/after-ukraine-doesputin-have-his-eyes-on-another-country/2023/02/28/a975856a-b727-11ed-b0df-8ca14de679ad_story.html.
11 | Wilkenfeld, Yoni. 2023. “Romania-Moldova Reunification: Three Scenarios.” GIS Reports. 4.9.2023. https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/romania-moldova-reunification/.
12 | Bloj, Ramona. “Une conversation avec Maia Sandu.” 2023. Groupe D’études Géopolitiques. May 22, 2023. https://geopolitique.eu/en/2023/05/22/a-conversation-with-maia-sandu/.
The unsettled conflict in Transnistria: The presence of Russian troops in Transnistria impacts Moldova’s internal security and border control capabilities.
Russian hybrid influence: Russia is currently waging a hybrid war in Moldova, manifested in disinformation, fake news, cyberattacks, and support for opposition groups. The aim is to increase citizens’ inclination to lean towards Russia instead of the EU.
Divided vision for the future: Moldova’s society and politics are deeply divided due to historical reasons, and the country’s foreign policy orientation has changed several times since independence. Hybrid actions aim to exploit this divide.
Economic support: The role of EU countries in resolving Moldova’s energy crisis exemplifies how closer economic relations can reduce the country’s vulnerability to Russian pressure and improve the economic conditions in a country struggling with living costs.
Integration and mediation: Benefits of EU integration, such as the EU–Moldova Association Agreement, trickling down to the Transnistrian region can strengthen the region’s desire to integrate with the rest of Moldova. The Cyprus example shows that this barrier is not insurmountable.
Membership process: Moldova has made progress in several key membership criteria, such as combating corruption and reforming the rule of law. Reforms increase political stability and build citizens’ trust in governance.
